Beyond Polling Averages
Understand Why Opinions Shift
Causal modeling and interactive analysis tools that reveal the drivers behind public opinion
Original JFK Approval
Maximum Swing Potential
Key Drivers Identified
Interactive Analysis Tools
A New Polling Paradigm
Transforming static data into dynamic strategic tools
Traditional Approach
- • Descriptive snapshots
- • Limited methodological transparency
- • Focus on "what" not "why"
Initial Transformation
- • Causal modeling framework
- • Interactive scenario testing
- • Percentage-point impact reporting
Future Vision
- • Open data platforms
- • Collaborative modeling
- • Democratic access to tools
Four-Pillar Implementation Framework
Operationalizing this transformation in practice
Causal Reframing
Redesign surveys to reveal why opinions shift, identifying the actual drivers that move approval ratings and key outcomes.
Impact Translation
Convert complex statistics into intuitive percentage-point impacts that decision-makers and engaged citizens can understand and act upon.
Interactive Simulation
Build scenario-testing tools that show how changing perceptions affect outcomes, creating "what-if" capabilities for strategy development.
Open Infrastructure
Document all methods and make data/tools publicly available, enabling verification and independent analysis to rebuild trust.
Case Study: JFK Approval
Our reanalysis of Louis Harris's survey for Newsweek just prior to John F. Kennedy's assassination demonstrates how causal methods reveal the drivers behind critical outcomes like approval.
Key Findings:
- Economic perceptions: 24-point impact on approval
- Khrushchev handling: 30-point approval swing
- Civil rights opposition: 11-point reduction
Simulation Preview
What if all likely voters (rather than 12%) believed President Kennedy excelled at keeping the economy healthy?
Trusted Across Professions
Transforming opinion analysis
Journalists
"Finally a way to explain why opinions are changing, not just what has changed. Our readers love the interactive elements."
Policymakers
"The simulation tools help us test how policy outcomes might affect public support before implementation."
Academics
"This framework bridges the gap between rigorous methods and accessible results. My students love working with the tools."
Interactive Analysis Tools
Explore the data through different methodological lenses
All-or-Nothing
Simulate extreme scenarios—what happens if every respondent shares the same opinion?
Fine-Tuning
Adjust distributions incrementally to see how small shifts in opinion affect outcomes.
Non-Response
Simulate how varying response rates might bias key outcome estimates.
Explore
Analyze relationships in the raw dataset—frequencies, correlations, and crosstabs.
Build
Construct your own models and simulators—test hypotheses and explore hidden bias.
Ready to transform your approach to public opinion?
Start exploring with our JFK case study or build your own custom model
Get In Touch
Contact us to discuss how causal modeling can enhance your research
Location
Las Vegas, NV