Electric Insights
ENHANCING PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH

Beyond Polling Averages
Understand Why Opinions Shift

Causal modeling and interactive analysis tools that reveal the drivers behind public opinion

57%

Original JFK Approval

30pt

Maximum Swing Potential

6

Key Drivers Identified

6

Interactive Analysis Tools

Causal Polling Framework

Four steps to transform traditional polling data into strategic foresight

1. Causal Reframing

Design surveys and models to estimate why opinions shift, not just track what people believe. Identify the key drivers that actually move approval ratings and other key outcomes.

2. Percentage-Point Reporting

Translate complex statistical outputs into intuitive metrics that policymakers, journalists, and engaged citizens can understand and act upon.

3. Interactive Simulation

Build tools that let users test "what-if" scenarios with real data. See how changing public perceptions would affect overall approval and other key outcomes.

4. Radical Transparency

Document methods, assumptions, and limitations to rebuild trust. Make data and analysis tools publicly available for verification and independent analysis.

Case Study: JFK Approval

Our reanalysis of Louis Harris's survey for Newsweek just prior to John F.Kennedy's assasination demonstrates how causal methods reveal the drivers behind critical outcomes like approval.

Key Findings:

  • Economic perceptions: 24-point impact on approval
  • Khrushchev handling: 30-point approval swing
  • Civil rights opposition: 11-point reduction

Simulation Preview

What if all likely voters (rather than 12%) believed President Kennedy excelled at keeping the economy healthy?

57%
Original Approval
68%
Simulated Approval
Launch All-or-Nothing Simulator

Trusted Across Professions

How our framework is transforming opinion analysis

Journalists

"Finally a way to explain why opinions are changing, not just what has changed. Our readers love the interactive elements."
— Sarah K., Senior Political Reporter

Policymakers

"The simulation tools help us test how policy outcomes might affect public support before implementation."
— Michael T., Legislative Director

Academics

"This framework bridges the gap between rigorous methods and accessible results. My students love working with the tools."
— Dr. Angela W., Political Science Professor

Interactive Analysis Tools

Explore the data through different methodological lenses

All-or-Nothing

Test scenarios where all respondents hold the same view

Reporting effects in percentage points
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Fine-Tuning

Make incremental changes to response distributions

A more nuanced approach
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Non-Response

Simulate effects of different response rates key outcomes

Critical given low response rates
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Explore

Investigate relationships in the original dataset

Frequencies, correlations, and crosstabs
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Build

Create custom models and accompanying simulators

Build your own models, test for hidden biases
Try it now
All tools use the original 1963 Harris/Newsweek dataset

Ready to transform your approach to public opinion?

Start exploring with our JFK case study or build your own custom model

Get In Touch

Contact us to discuss how causal modeling can enhance your research

Location

Las Vegas, NV