Beyond Polling Averages
Understand Why Opinions Shift
Causal modeling and interactive analysis tools that reveal the drivers behind public opinion
Original JFK Approval
Maximum Swing Potential
Key Drivers Identified
Interactive Analysis Tools
Causal Polling Framework
Four steps to transform traditional polling data into strategic foresight
1. Causal Reframing
Design surveys and models to estimate why opinions shift, not just track what people believe. Identify the key drivers that actually move approval ratings and other key outcomes.
2. Percentage-Point Reporting
Translate complex statistical outputs into intuitive metrics that policymakers, journalists, and engaged citizens can understand and act upon.
3. Interactive Simulation
Build tools that let users test "what-if" scenarios with real data. See how changing public perceptions would affect overall approval and other key outcomes.
4. Radical Transparency
Document methods, assumptions, and limitations to rebuild trust. Make data and analysis tools publicly available for verification and independent analysis.
Case Study: JFK Approval
Our reanalysis of Louis Harris's survey for Newsweek just prior to John F.Kennedy's assasination demonstrates how causal methods reveal the drivers behind critical outcomes like approval.
Key Findings:
- Economic perceptions: 24-point impact on approval
- Khrushchev handling: 30-point approval swing
- Civil rights opposition: 11-point reduction
Simulation Preview
What if all likely voters (rather than 12%) believed President Kennedy excelled at keeping the economy healthy?
Trusted Across Professions
How our framework is transforming opinion analysis
Journalists
"Finally a way to explain why opinions are changing, not just what has changed. Our readers love the interactive elements."
Policymakers
"The simulation tools help us test how policy outcomes might affect public support before implementation."
Academics
"This framework bridges the gap between rigorous methods and accessible results. My students love working with the tools."
Interactive Analysis Tools
Explore the data through different methodological lenses
All-or-Nothing
Test scenarios where all respondents hold the same view
Non-Response
Simulate effects of different response rates key outcomes
Explore
Investigate relationships in the original dataset
Build
Create custom models and accompanying simulators
Ready to transform your approach to public opinion?
Start exploring with our JFK case study or build your own custom model
Get In Touch
Contact us to discuss how causal modeling can enhance your research