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JFK Case Study All-or-Nothing Simulator Fine-Tuning Simulator Non-Response Test Survey Explorer Model Builder
November 1963 · Harris/Newsweek Survey

JFK Approval Simulator

Part 2 of 2 — Fine-Tuning Scenarios  ·  ← Part 1: All-or-Nothing Simulator

Instead of moving everyone to a single view, shift the distribution of responses gradually — and see how those proportional changes would have moved approval.

Use Part 1 for extreme all-or-nothing scenarios. Use this page to explore realistic distributional shifts.

All-or-Nothing Simulator · Non-Response Test · Survey Explorer · Model Builder
Use the sliders to ask “what if fewer (or more) people felt this way?” — each group shows how even modest shifts move the approval needle.

How to Use This Tool

Shift response distributions continuously and see how approval would have changed

1. Adjust the Sliders

Each variable card has sliders for every response category. Drag them to set a hypothetical distribution — for example, increase “Poor” ratings on Khrushchev handling from 9% to 25%. The total for each variable must sum to 100%; a running total shows you where you stand. Use the per-card Reset button to restore a single variable without clearing the others.

2. Simulate Approval

Click Simulate Approval to run your scenario. Unlike the All-or-Nothing Simulator, this tool applies your adjusted distributions to the actual respondent microdata — each individual’s predicted probability is re-estimated using their real values on unchanged predictors and your new distribution on modified ones. The result is a population-weighted aggregate.

3. Read the Distribution Chart

The probability distribution chart shows 10,000 Monte Carlo draws for both the baseline and your scenario. The overlap between the two distributions tells you how distinguishable the shift is from sampling noise — narrow overlap means a robust finding; wide overlap means the difference could plausibly be due to chance. Each draw samples the full coefficient vector jointly.

4. Save and Compare Scenarios

Each run is automatically saved to the Saved Scenarios tray. Click Load on any saved card to restore its slider settings and re-run. Use Pin to anchor a scenario as a comparison baseline — the chart will overlay the pinned scenario against your current one so you can see the difference directly.

5. Check Calibration

The calibration bubble chart shows observed vs. predicted probabilities by decile group. When no sliders are changed, all bubbles sit on the diagonal. As you adjust distributions, bubbles drift — the further they drift, the harder your scenario is to achieve within the model’s uncertainty bounds. ECE (average gap) and MCE (largest single-group gap) summarize overall reliability.

6. Reset and Iterate

Click Reset All to return every slider to its November 1963 baseline distribution and clear the results. The baseline approval of 56.9% reflects the actual survey estimate from the published model. The All-or-Nothing Simulator (previous page) is better suited for testing extreme scenarios where all respondents hold the same view.

Adjust Key Factors

Drag any slider away from its starting position, then click Simulate Approval. Or try a preset — for example, shift everyone to “Poor” on World Peace to see how approval falls.

Try a scenario:

Original questionnaire
November 1963 survey responses & observed approval rates
Variable Response Survey % Approved % N
KhrushchevExcellent2285269
Pretty good4370534
Only fair2328292
Poor95115
Not sure44048
EconomyExcellent1291149
Pretty good4374528
Only fair2634332
Poor912120
Not sure1041124
World PeaceExcellent2983359
Pretty good4462553
Only fair1819229
Poor5566
Not sure44245
VietnamExcellent1085119
Pretty good3573440
Only fair2242283
Poor1316159
Not sure2153255
Civil RightsFavor5573673
Oppose3031378
Not sure1550183
RaceWhite94551,195
Black68457

Handling Khrushchev

How well was Kennedy managing relations with Soviet leader Khrushchev?

22%
43%
23%
9%
3%
Total: 100%

Keeping Economy Healthy

How well was Kennedy handling the state of the U.S. economy?

12%
43%
26%
9%
10%
Total: 100%

Working for World Peace

How well was Kennedy working to reduce the risk of nuclear war and global conflict?

29%
44%
18%
5%
4%
Total: 100%

Handling Vietnam Situation

How well was Kennedy managing U.S. military involvement in South Vietnam?

10%
35%
22%
13%
20%
Total: 100%

Proposed Civil Rights Legislation

Did you favor or oppose Kennedy's proposed civil rights bill, which would ban racial discrimination?

55%
30%
15%
Total: 100%

Respondent Race

The respondent's race. Counterintuitive finding: Black respondents approved at 84% vs. 55% for white respondents — a 29-point gap driven by Kennedy's civil rights bill.

94%
6%
Total: 100%