How to Use the Simulator

• "No change": Preserves the observed values for each variable across all 1,180 respondents. The predicted approval probability remains 57% (0.57).
• Make a selection: When you adjust the distribution for a predictor variable, the simulator applies the new values to all 1,180 respondents.

Applying Probabilities

You can apply predicted probabilities either broadly or individually:

• All Likely Voters: If you believe your selections could apply to all 71 million likely voters, the simulator estimates a national approval rate and total number of approvers.
• Specific Individuals: If your inputs reflect yourself or someone else, the simulator provides a personalized approval probability.

Understanding Confidence Intervals

Each prediction includes a 95% confidence interval showing the likely range of the true value.

• Interpretation: For the base 57% approval rating (with a 55%–59% confidence interval), you can be 95% confident the true value lies within this range in repeated samples. The interval size varies depending on your adjustments.
• Technical Note: Confidence intervals are calculated in real time using the Delta Method. This approach helps account for uncertainty in the model and underlying data. It’s also the method used by statistical software like Stata.