Beyond Polling Averages
Understand Why Opinions Shift
Explanatory modeling and interactive analysis tools that reveal the drivers behind public opinion
Original JFK Approval Rating
Approval swing from Khrushchev handling perceptions
Key drivers identified in the published model
A New Polling Paradigm
Transforming static data into dynamic strategic tools
Traditional Approach
- • Descriptive snapshots
- • Limited methodological transparency
- • Focus on “what” not “why”
Initial Transformation
- • Explanatory modeling framework
- • Interactive scenario testing
- • Percentage-point impact reporting
Where We're Headed
Aspirational- • Open data platforms
- • Collaborative modeling
- • Democratic access to tools
Four-Pillar Implementation Framework
Operationalizing this transformation in practice
Reframing
Redesign surveys to reveal why opinions shift, identifying the actual drivers that move approval ratings and key outcomes.
Translation
Convert complex statistics into intuitive percentage-point effects that decision-makers and engaged citizens can understand and act upon.
Interactive Simulation
Build scenario-testing tools that show how changing perceptions affect outcomes, creating “what-if” capabilities for strategy development.
Open Infrastructure
Document all methods and make data/tools publicly available, enabling verification and independent analysis to rebuild trust.
Case Study: JFK Approval
Our reanalysis of Louis Harris's survey for Newsweek just prior to John F. Kennedy's assassination demonstrates how explanatory modeling methods identify the drivers behind critical outcomes like approval.
Key Findings:
- Economic perceptions: 24-point impact on approval
- Khrushchev handling: 30-point approval swing
- Civil rights opposition: 11-point reduction
Example Result
What if all likely voters (rather than 12%) believed President Kennedy excelled at keeping the economy healthy?
Who This Is For
Tools designed for anyone who works with public opinion data
Journalists
Go beyond the topline number. Identify which issues are actually driving approval changes and explain them to readers in percentage-point terms.
Researchers & Policymakers
Test how shifts in public perception on specific issues translate to changes in overall support. Run nonresponse stress tests before publishing.
Educators & Students
Use a real historical dataset to teach explanatory modeling, survey methodology, and the limits of descriptive polling in an interactive environment.
Foundations, Associations & Brands
You already commission survey research. Explanatory modeling lets you extract more value from that investment—showing not just what your audiences think, but which attitudes and experiences are actually driving the outcomes you measure. Build your own model from your own data and turn analysis into a strategic tool.
Interactive Analysis Tools
Explore the data through different methodological lenses
All-or-Nothing
Simulate extreme scenarios—what happens if every respondent shares the same opinion?
Fine-Tuning
Adjust distributions incrementally to see how small shifts in opinion affect outcomes.
Non-Response
Simulate how varying response rates might bias key outcome estimates.
Explore
Analyze relationships in the raw dataset—frequencies, correlations, and crosstabs.
Build
Construct your own models and simulators—test hypotheses and explore hidden bias.
Ready to transform your approach to public opinion?
Start exploring with our JFK case study or build your own custom model
Get In Touch
Contact us to discuss how this approach can enhance your research
Location
Las Vegas, NV