Beyond Polling Averages
Understand Why Opinions Shift
Explanatory modeling and interactive analysis tools that reveal the drivers behind public opinion
Original JFK Approval
Maximum Swing Potential
Key Drivers Identified
Interactive Analysis Tools
A New Polling Paradigm
Transforming static data into dynamic strategic tools
Traditional Approach
- • Descriptive snapshots
- • Limited methodological transparency
- • Focus on "what" not "why"
Initial Transformation
- • Explanatory modeling framework
- • Interactive scenario testing
- • Percentage-point impact reporting
Future Vision
- • Open data platforms
- • Collaborative modeling
- • Democratic access to tools
Four-Pillar Implementation Framework
Operationalizing this transformation in practice
Reframing
Redesign surveys to reveal why opinions shift, identifying the actual drivers that move approval ratings and key outcomes.
Translation
Convert complex statistics into intuitive percentage-point effects that decision-makers and engaged citizens can understand and act upon.
Interactive Simulation
Build scenario-testing tools that show how changing perceptions affect outcomes, creating "what-if" capabilities for strategy development.
Open Infrastructure
Document all methods and make data/tools publicly available, enabling verification and independent analysis to rebuild trust.
Case Study: JFK Approval
Our reanalysis of Louis Harris's survey for Newsweek just prior to John F. Kennedy's assassination demonstrates how explanatory modeling methods identify the drivers behind critical outcomes like approval.
Key Findings:
- Economic perceptions: 24-point impact on approval
- Khrushchev handling: 30-point approval swing
- Civil rights opposition: 11-point reduction
Simulation Preview
What if all likely voters (rather than 12%) believed President Kennedy excelled at keeping the economy healthy?
Trusted Across Professions
Transforming opinion analysis
Journalists
"Finally a way to explain why opinions are changing, not just what has changed. Our readers love the interactive elements."
Policymakers
"The simulation tools help us test how policy outcomes might affect public support before implementation."
Academics
"This framework bridges the gap between rigorous methods and accessible results. My students love working with the tools."
Five Ways to Explore the Data
Each tool asks a different question about the November 1963 Harris–Newsweek survey.
All-or-Nothing Simulator
What if every respondent felt the same way about an issue? Move one variable to an extreme and see how much it would have shifted Kennedy’s approval.
Try itFine-Tuning Simulator
Instead of extremes, shift the mix gradually — fewer people rating Vietnam as “Poor,” more rating the economy as “Excellent.” Watch how small distributional changes move the approval needle.
Try itNon-Response Test
Not everyone answers a survey. Could the people who didn’t respond have changed the headline result? Set how many non-respondents to assume and what they would have said.
Try itSurvey Explorer
Browse the raw responses. See how Americans answered each question, which questions moved together, and how one group compared to another.
Try itModel Builder
Pick survey questions, build a logistic regression model, and see which variables actually predicted approval. Test whether the published model holds up — or whether a different set of questions fits better.
Try itReady to transform your approach to public opinion?
Start exploring with our JFK case study or build your own custom model
Get In Touch
Contact us to discuss how this approach can enhance your research
Location
Las Vegas, NV