Build Models
Configure synthetic predictor variables, build models, and create custom simulations.
How to Use This Tool
Follow these steps to build and analyze your models
1. Select Predictors
Check relevant variables. Hover info icons for definitions. The six predictor variables in the published Approval model are pre-selected as a default.
2. Add Synthetic Variable (Optional)
You can optionally create a synthetic variable to explore alongside your selected inputs. This helps test how a hypothetical factor might affect the outcome—and reveals which real-world variables show similar patterns. The algorithm will adjust the synthetic variable iteratively to attempt to match the parameters you specify.
3. Select Outcome
Choose what to model: Presidential Approval, Vote Intention, or Tax Cut Support. Presidential Approval is selected as a default
4. Run Analysis
Click "Run Analysis" to estimate the model and view results.
5. Review Results
Examine probabilities, margins, and diagnostics. The analysis will show the synthetic variable's estimated effect and suggest real variables with similar patterns.
6. Build Simulator
Set hypothetical values to see their effects, including values for any synthetic variables you configured.
7. Iterate
Adjust variables (including synthetic ones), compare scenarios, and refine your model based on the insights gained.