Overview & Tips
  • Crux reported in November 2021 that 17% of US adults (45m of 260m) trust pollsters/polling organizations. (That means a randomly selected adult's probability was .17.) Using Crux data, we built a model to predict trust and packaged it in this simulator to help interested parties figure out how to increase the 17% (.17) and 45m numbers.
  • Tip 1: If you select hold constant, the simulator keeps every Crux interviewee's (n=1,198) response for that question. If you select hold constant for every question, the predicted probability of trusting pollsters/polling organizations will still be .17.
  • Tip 2: If you select different values, the simulator assumes every interviewee chose them as well, and our predictions will change accordingly.
  • Tip 3: Be careful with socio-demographic variables (in purple). See applying probabilities.
  Trust in Pollsters "All or Nothing" Simulator
  Use the fine-tuner to test more-nuanced scenarios.

Crux p: 0.17, Pop: 45 of 260m

Applying Probabilities

Potentially, you can apply the same predicted probability to three groups:

  1. All Adults. If you see a way for your selected values to apply to all 260m adults, you can regard those values as targets to hit to increase (or decrease) the 17% (.17) and 45m numbers. To ensure they apply, hold constant every socio-demographic variable.
  2. The Target. When selecting socio-demographic criteria that are not universally applicable (e.g., not everyone falls within the 18-34 age range), the simulator generates a second set of results based on the actual size of the target population. For example, if you select Age ("18-34"), Urbanicity ("Suburban"), and Education ("BA/BS+"), the second set of results will correspond to a group of approximately 7 million adults.
  3. Specific Individuals. If the values you choose are your own, or those of someone you had in mind, the resulting estimate will be your, or their, predicted probability.

Simulation Possibilities

You can simulate thousands of possibilities to answer questions like this:

  • If all 260m adults, rather than the 3% (8m) Crux reported, felt "extremely confident" that pollsters will correctly predict the next president (and nothing else changed), what impact would that make on the percentage (17%) and number (145m) of adults who trust pollsters/polling organizations? [The figures would increase to 26% and 67m.]
  • What's my probability of trusting pollsters/polling organizations? [Enter your values to see for yourself.]