Overview & Tips
    The NBA made available rare performance data (notably, the closest defender's distance to the shooter) for most of the 2014-15 season only. Analysis shows players made 11,426 of 32,511 (35%) 3-point shots from October 28, 2014 to March 4, 2015. A single, randomly-selected shot's expected value was 1.05 points (3*.35).

    Using NBA data, we built a model to predict makes then packaged it in this simulator to help interested parties figure out how to increase or decrease the 35% (.35) and 11,426 numbers:

  • Tip 1. If you select hold constant, the simulator keeps the actual values for that predictor variable. If you select hold constant for every variable, the predicted make probability still will be .35.
  • Tip 2. If you select different values, the simulator assumes they apply to all shots, with the make probability and associated estimates changing accordingly. See applying probabilities.

  NBA 3-Pointer "All or Nothing" Simulator
  Check out Steph Curry's fine-tuning simulator.

NBA '14-15 p: 0.35, Makes:11426

Applying Probabilities

The same predicted probability can apply to:

  1. All 32,511 3-point shots. You can think of the values you select as targets to hit to increase (or decrease) the 35% (.35) and 11,426 numbers.
  2. Any individual 3-point shot with the values you select.

Simulation Possibilities

You can simulate thousands of possibilities to answer questions like this:

  1. If all 3-pointers, rather than 12%, were uncontested (i.e., no defender within 9 ft.), and nothing else were to change, how would that affect the percentage (35%) and number (11,426) of makes? [The figures would increase to 39% and 12,717.]
  2. What is the "make" probability for an individual 3-pointer? [Enter values to see for yourself.]